Democratic
South Dakota › South Dakota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota Legislative District 12
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (70%).
Zweifel is favored to win: Zweifel wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Zweifel (D)
70%
chance of winning
Shanard-Koenders (R)
30%
- Average margin
- D+3.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (56% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Zweifel (D)
56%
chance of winning
Shanard-Koenders (R)
44%
- Average margin
- D+1.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kari Shanard-Koenders
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.64 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 30,266
- People per km²
- 1,190
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 49%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
11,075 votes · R+11.4✓ Arch Beal (R)55.7%
Clay Hoffman (D)44.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
11,333 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.6%
Kamala Harris (D)47.4%
2022
9,187 votes · R+7.8✓ Arch Beal (R)53.9%
Jessica Meyers (D)46.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
12,205 votes · R+8.1✓ R Blake Curd (R)54.1%
Jessica Meyers (D)45.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
11,950 two-party votes · R+2.9 · R+7.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.4%
Joe Biden (D)48.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,117 two-party votes · R+13.0 · R+15.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.5%