Two representatives per district
Each of the 35 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 26 and 28 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
South Dakota › South Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota Legislative District 34
2 seatsDerby is very likely to win: Derby wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Dominquez (D)
2%
chance of winning
Derby (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+17.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+29 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Derby is clearly favored to win: Derby wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Dominquez (D)
6%
chance of winning
Derby (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+15.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.1 D · 1.9 R expected of 2 seats
0.1 D · 1.9 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Victor Diego Dominquez
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike Derby
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Becky Drury
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.41 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -35.79 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 19,544
- People per km²
- 206
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 13%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,489 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mike Derby (R)52.7%
✓ Heather Baxter (R)47.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
12,615 two-party votes · R+16.5 · R+15.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.3%
Kamala Harris (D)41.7%
2022
19,368 votes · R+21.0✓ Mike Derby (R)32.8%
✓ Jess Olson (R)30.3%
Darla Drew (D)21.4%
Jay Shultz (D)15.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
21,563 votes · R+31.0✓ Mike Derby (R)33.5%
✓ Jess Olson (R)31.3%
Rick Stracqualursi (D)17.7%
Nick Anderson (D)17.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
18,448 two-party votes · R+19.4 · R+23.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.7%
Joe Biden (D)40.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
15,034 two-party votes · R+30.8 · R+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.6%