Two representatives per district
Each of the 35 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 26 and 28 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
South Dakota › South Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota Legislative District 17
2 seatsKassin is clearly favored to win: Kassin wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Brunick (D)
7%
chance of winning
Kassin (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+11.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kassin is clearly favored to win: Kassin wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Brunick (D)
12%
chance of winning
Kassin (R)
88%
- Average margin
- R+11.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.2 D · 1.8 R expected of 2 seats
0.3 D · 1.7 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Austin Brunick
Democratic
Leslie Gerrish
RepublicanIncumbent
Chris Kassin
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Troy Redler
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.93 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.93 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 25,014
- People per km²
- 19
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 49%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
16,441 votes · R+22.4✓ Chris Kassin (R)40.7%
✓ William "bill" Shorma (R)33.4%
Ray Ring (D)25.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
11,525 two-party votes · R+19.1 · R+17.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.6%
Kamala Harris (D)40.4%
2022
12,579 votes · R+15.9✓ Chris Kassin (R)39.3%
✓ William Shorma (R)32.2%
Rebecca "bekki" Engquist-Schroeder (D)28.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,890 votes · R+18.3✓ Sydney Davis (R)31.2%
✓ Richard Vasgaard (R)28.3%
Al Leber (D)21.6%
Caitlin F Collier (D)18.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
12,985 two-party votes · R+14.7 · R+19.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.3%
Joe Biden (D)42.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,861 two-party votes · R+16.1 · R+18.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.0%