Two representatives per district
Each of the 35 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 26 and 28 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
South Dakota › South Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota Legislative District 10
2 seatsBair is very likely to win: Bair wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Bair (D)
99%
chance of winning
Pohlman (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+18.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bair is clearly favored to win: Bair wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Bair (D)
95%
chance of winning
Pohlman (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+16.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
1.9 D · 0.1 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.45 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.92 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 22,467
- People per km²
- 698
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 7%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,417 votes · D+9.6✓ Erin Healy (D)38.3%
✓ Bobbi L Andera (R)31.6%
Kameron Nelson (D)30.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
9,825 two-party votes · D+7.9 · D+9.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%
2022
14,217 votes · D+19.4✓ Erin Healy (D)32.4%
✓ Kameron Nelson (D)24.7%
John G Mogen (R)21.9%
Tom E Sutton (R)21.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
17,451 votes · R+15.9✓ Steven Haugaard (R)37.4%
✓ Doug Barthel (R)35.5%
Michelle L Hentschel (D)27.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,786 two-party votes · D+11.6 · D+7.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.8%
Donald Trump (R)44.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
8,433 two-party votes · D+4.4 · D+2.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
Also on the ballot in South Dakota
Neighboring districts
LD-2Blake RifeAdam Long2 seats99%Rep.97%Rep. LD-12Stephanie ArneAmber ArlintFlip riskFlip risk2 seats55%Rep.56%Dem. LD-13Ali Rae HorstedJack Kolbeck2 seats79%Rep.72%Rep. LD-14Erinn WilliamsTaylor RehfeldtFlip riskD flip2 seats57%Dem.67%Dem. LD-15Kadyn WittmanAndre Zachariahs2 seats98%Dem.85%Dem. LD-25—Nick BuchholzR vs R2 seats>99%Rep.>99%Rep.