Democratic
South Dakota › South Dakota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota Legislative District 27
Stadnick is favored to win: Stadnick wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Stadnick (D)
78%
chance of winning
Kathol (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+5.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (44% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Stadnick (D)
56%
chance of winning
Kathol (R)
44%
- Average margin
- D+1.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.05 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 10.44 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 28,131
- People per km²
- 2
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 17%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 36%
- Hispanic 3%
- Other / multiracial 60%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
7,325 votes · D+3.9✓ Red Dawn Foster (D)52.0%
Anthony G Kathol (R)48.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
7,338 two-party votes · R+0.2 · D+1.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Kamala Harris (D)49.9%
2022
6,179 votes · D+2.9✓ Red Dawn Foster (D)51.4%
David Jones (R)48.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,807 votes · D+12.5✓ Red Dawn Foster (D)56.3%
Judd W Schomp (R)43.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,702 two-party votes · R+1.7 · R+6.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.8%
Joe Biden (D)49.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,131 two-party votes · D+2.7 · D+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%