Democratic
Ohio › Ohio House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio House District 48
Hagan is very likely to win: Hagan wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Morris (D)
2%
chance of winning
Hagan (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+17.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hagan is very likely to win: Hagan wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Morris (D)
4%
chance of winning
Hagan (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+18.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+31 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Christina Hagan
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.77 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -9.77 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+26: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 125,248
- People per km²
- 293
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 61%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
64,899 votes · R+37.8✓ Scott Oelslager (R)68.9%
Lynn C Gorman (D)31.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
66,611 two-party votes · R+26.1 · R+24.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.0%
Kamala Harris (D)37.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
49,717 votes · R+38.3✓ Scott Oelslager (R)69.2%
David Smith (D)30.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
52,176 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Scott Oelslager (R)97.4%
Writein (—)2.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
67,373 two-party votes · R+23.7 · R+28.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.8%
Joe Biden (D)38.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
58,768 two-party votes · R+26.2 · R+28.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.9%