Democratic
Ohio › Ohio House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio House District 68
Claggett is clearly favored to win: Claggett wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Blankenship (D)
6%
chance of winning
Claggett (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+11.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Claggett is clearly favored to win: Claggett wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Blankenship (D)
8%
chance of winning
Claggett (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+13.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Thaddeus Claggett
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.61 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.33 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.33 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 115,074
- People per km²
- 195
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 6%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
60,223 votes · R+17.7✓ Thad Claggett (R)58.9%
Michael E Smith (D)41.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
61,488 two-party votes · R+19.9 · R+18.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.0%
Kamala Harris (D)40.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
30,800 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Thad Claggett (R)98.1%
Daniel Crawford (—)1.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
71,539 votes · R+35.9✓ Rick Carfagna (R)67.9%
Steven F Mount (D)32.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
60,801 two-party votes · R+18.2 · R+22.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Joe Biden (D)40.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
51,472 two-party votes · R+21.5 · R+23.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.2%