Democratic
Ohio › Ohio House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio House District 62
Schmidt is very likely to win: Schmidt wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Schwartz (D)
1%
chance of winning
Schmidt (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+19.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+29 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Schmidt is very likely to win: Schmidt wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Schwartz (D)
2%
chance of winning
Schmidt (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+22.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.84 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.12 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.12 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 125,817
- People per km²
- 370
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
66,385 votes · R+26.9✓ Jean Schmidt (R)63.5%
Katie Vockell (D)36.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
68,713 two-party votes · R+29.1 · R+27.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.5%
Kamala Harris (D)35.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
49,565 votes · R+28.4✓ Jean Schmidt (R)64.2%
Brian Flick (D)35.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
73,398 votes · R+49.3✓ Scott Lipps (R)74.7%
Erin Rosiello (D)25.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
67,112 two-party votes · R+30.7 · R+35.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.3%
Joe Biden (D)34.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
58,290 two-party votes · R+38.4 · R+40.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.8%