DemocraticIncumbent
Christine Cockley
Incumbent representative (2025–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Ohio › Ohio House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio House District 6
Cockley is very likely to win: Cockley wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Cockley (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Jackson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+23.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Cockley is very likely to win: Cockley wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Cockley (D)
98%
chance of winning
Jackson (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+20.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.78 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 10.26 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 10.26 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 108,838
- People per km²
- 1,372
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 15%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
38,678 votes · D+20.6✓ Christine Cockley (D)60.3%
Hussein Jabiri (R)39.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
41,335 two-party votes · D+11.9 · D+13.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.0%
Donald Trump (R)44.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
26,705 votes · D+15.6✓ Adam C Miller (D)57.8%
Joe Wharton (R)42.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
73,977 votes · D+2.7✓ Phil Robinson (D)51.4%
Shay Hawkins (R)48.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
44,687 two-party votes · D+15.8 · D+11.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.9%
Donald Trump (R)42.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
39,501 two-party votes · D+11.0 · D+8.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.5%
Donald Trump (R)44.5%