DemocraticIncumbent
Michele Grim
- Experience
- State legislature
Ohio › Ohio House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio House District 43
Grim is very likely to win: Grim wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Grim (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Karmol (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+27.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+19 to D+37
- Partisan lean
- D+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Grim is very likely to win: Grim wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Grim (D)
99%
chance of winning
Karmol (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+26.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+39
- Partisan lean
- D+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.87 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.29 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.29 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 111,984
- People per km²
- 1,245
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 20%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
44,542 votes · D+20.7✓ Michele Grim (D)60.3%
Wendi Hendricks (R)39.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
45,927 two-party votes · D+19.0 · D+20.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)59.5%
Donald Trump (R)40.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
33,610 votes · D+28.3✓ Michele Grim (D)64.2%
Wendi Hendricks (R)35.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
58,015 votes · R+8.5✓ Rodney Creech (R)54.2%
Amy Cox (D)45.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
48,564 two-party votes · D+23.0 · D+18.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)61.5%
Donald Trump (R)38.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
46,589 two-party votes · D+23.1 · D+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.5%
Donald Trump (R)38.5%