Democratic
Ohio › Ohio House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio House District 89
Swearingen is clearly favored to win: Swearingen wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Retzke (D)
9%
chance of winning
Swearingen (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+9.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Swearingen is clearly favored to win: Swearingen wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Retzke (D)
13%
chance of winning
Swearingen (R)
87%
- Average margin
- R+11.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
D.J. Swearingen
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.59 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.56 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.56 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 114,793
- People per km²
- 37
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 83%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 6%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
59,910 votes · R+17.3✓ Dj Swearingen (R)58.7%
Alicia W Roshong (D)41.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
61,703 two-party votes · R+18.9 · R+17.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.4%
Kamala Harris (D)40.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
42,622 votes · R+23.5✓ D J Swearingen (R)61.7%
Jim Obergefell (D)38.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
62,255 votes · R+14.6✓ D J Swearingen (R)57.3%
Alexis Miller (D)42.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
61,851 two-party votes · R+16.7 · R+21.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.4%
Joe Biden (D)41.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
55,203 two-party votes · R+14.6 · R+16.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.7%