Democratic
Minnesota › Minnesota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota House District 22B
Stier is very likely to win: Stier wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Nesgoda (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Stier (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+24.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+15
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Stier is very likely to win: Stier wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Nesgoda (D)
1%
chance of winning
Stier (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+27.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+40 to R+15
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Terry Matthew Stier
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.29 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.31 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.31 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+33: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 44,137
- People per km²
- 25
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
24,809 votes · R+37.6✓ Terry M Stier (R)68.7%
Sara Nett-Torgrimson (D)31.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
26,335 two-party votes · R+33.7 · R+32.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.8%
Kamala Harris (D)33.2%
2022
19,259 votes · R+37.4✓ Brian H Pfarr (R)68.7%
Marcia Stapleton (D)31.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
17,572 votes · R+45.9✓ Rod Hamilton (R)72.9%
Lynn Herrick (D)27.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
27,247 two-party votes · R+29.8 · R+34.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.9%
Joe Biden (D)35.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,715 two-party votes · R+33.8 · R+36.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.1%
Also on the ballot in Minnesota
Neighboring districts
HD-17BBen WiemanBobbie Harder>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-18ALeah HansonErica SchwartzD flipD flip66%Dem.69%Dem. HD-18BLuke Frederick—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-19AMartha BrownKeith Allen99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-22ASonja L. DennBjorn Olson>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-23AJoe StalochNick Ronnenberg98%Rep.97%Rep. HD-54BChristopher KartschokeNatalie Barnes82%Rep.79%Rep. HD-58AKristi PursellSteven E. Cherney98%Dem.86%Dem.