DemocraticIncumbent
Jessica Hanson
- Experience
- State legislature
Minnesota › Minnesota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota House District 55A
Hanson is very likely to win: Hanson wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Hanson (D)
99%
chance of winning
Myhra (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+17.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hanson is clearly favored to win: Hanson wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hanson (D)
95%
chance of winning
Myhra (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+16.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Pam Myhra
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.23 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.7 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.7 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 42,854
- People per km²
- 750
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 10%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
22,714 votes · D+6.8✓ Jessica Hanson (D)53.3%
Gabriela Kroetch (R)46.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
25,008 two-party votes · D+11.7 · D+13.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.8%
Donald Trump (R)44.2%
2022
18,229 votes · D+6.1✓ Jess Hanson (D)53.0%
Gabriela Kroetch (R)46.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
23,048 votes · R+2.6✓ Erik Mortensen (R)47.4%
Brad Tabke (D)45.0%
Ryan Martin (—)7.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
25,082 two-party votes · D+13.2 · D+8.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.6%
Donald Trump (R)43.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,056 two-party votes · D+4.4 · D+2.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
Also on the ballot in Minnesota
Neighboring districts
HD-50BSteve Elkins—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-51BNathan CoulterJim Lund>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-52AChristos Roy JensenGeorge Gilmour>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-54ABrad TabkeAaron Paul97%Dem.85%Dem. HD-54BChristopher KartschokeNatalie Barnes82%Rep.79%Rep. HD-55BHunter CantrellTodd Buchwald>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-57AJD DelgadoJon Koznick94%Rep.88%Rep.