DemocraticIncumbent
Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn
- Experience
- State legislature
Minnesota › Minnesota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota House District 49B
Kotyza-Witthuhn is very likely to win: Kotyza-Witthuhn wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kotyza-Witthuhn (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Cregg (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+22 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kotyza-Witthuhn is very likely to win: Kotyza-Witthuhn wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kotyza-Witthuhn (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Cregg (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+32.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+45
- Partisan lean
- D+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Wendy Cregg
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -9.89 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -9.89 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,437
- People per km²
- 632
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 65%
- White, no degree
- 24%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 4%
- Asian 16%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
23,688 votes · D+14.3✓ Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn (D)57.1%
Wendi Russo (R)42.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
23,925 two-party votes · D+27.2 · D+28.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)63.6%
Donald Trump (R)36.4%
2022
19,795 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn (—)57.6%
Thomas Knecht (R)42.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
28,740 votes · D+24.5✓ Steve Elkins (D)62.2%
Joe Thalman (R)37.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
25,316 two-party votes · D+25.6 · D+21.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.8%
Donald Trump (R)37.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
21,278 two-party votes · D+14.5 · D+12.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.2%
Donald Trump (R)42.8%