DemocraticIncumbent
Cheryl Youakim
- Experience
- State legislature
Minnesota › Minnesota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota House District 46B
Youakim is very likely to win: Youakim wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Youakim (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rich (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+46.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+38 to D+57
- Partisan lean
- D+45
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Youakim is very likely to win: Youakim wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Youakim (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rich (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+49.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+37 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+45
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kim Rich
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.86 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.09 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -7.09 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+45: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,770
- People per km²
- 1,356
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 59%
- White, no degree
- 30%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 11%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
24,415 votes · D+35.5✓ Cheryl Youakim (D)67.6%
Kim Rich (R)32.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,760 two-party votes · D+45.2 · D+46.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)72.6%
Donald Trump (R)27.4%
2022
15,175 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Cheryl Youakim (D)97.1%
Write-In (—)2.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
25,428 votes · D+47.5✓ Cheryl Youakim (D)73.7%
Melissa Moore (R)26.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
26,249 two-party votes · D+44.9 · D+40.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)72.4%
Donald Trump (R)27.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
21,411 two-party votes · D+36.5 · D+34.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)68.2%
Donald Trump (R)31.8%