Democratic
Minnesota › Minnesota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota House District 21B
Fogelman is very likely to win: Fogelman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wilson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fogelman (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+23.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+32
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fogelman is very likely to win: Fogelman wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Wilson (D)
1%
chance of winning
Fogelman (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+26.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+40 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+32
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Marj J Fogelman
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.3 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.24 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.24 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+32: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 36,966
- People per km²
- 9
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 20%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 28%
- Black 3%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
18,073 votes · R+32.7✓ Marj J Fogelman (R)66.3%
Jon Wilson (D)33.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
18,050 two-party votes · R+33.6 · R+32.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.8%
Kamala Harris (D)33.2%
2022
14,190 votes · R+33.3✓ Marj Fogelman (R)66.5%
Michael Heidelberger (D)33.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
23,502 votes · R+33.3✓ Steve Drazkowski (R)66.6%
Elise Diesslin (D)33.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
18,975 two-party votes · R+28.8 · R+33.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.4%
Joe Biden (D)35.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,514 two-party votes · R+29.4 · R+31.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.3%