Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Minnesota › Minnesota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Minnesota House District 18B

Luke Frederick has no major-party opponent.

Luke Frederick has no major-party opponent.

The candidates

The district

Lean D+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+9.4D+7.1 vs. nation2020 presidentD+20.6D+16.0 vs. nation2024 presidentD+12.2D+13.7 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
36,737
People per km²
714
Adults with a B.A.+
34%
White, no degree
53%of adults
  • White 81%
  • Hispanic 5%
  • Black 7%
  • Asian 4%
  • Other / multiracial 3%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

19,577 votes · D+11.5
✓ Luke Frederick (D)55.6%
Dar Vosburg (R)44.2%

2024 President Vote in this district

19,585 two-party votes · D+12.2 · D+13.7 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.1%
Donald Trump (R)43.9%

2022

14,243 votes · D+20.4
✓ Luke Frederick (D)60.1%
Dar Vosburg (R)39.8%

2020 Earlier district lines

21,683 votes · R+42.9
✓ Glenn Gruenhagen (R)71.4%
Heather Bakke (D)28.5%

2020 President Vote in this district

19,583 two-party votes · D+20.6 · D+16.0 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)60.3%
Donald Trump (R)39.7%

2016 President Vote in this district

17,384 two-party votes · D+9.4 · D+7.1 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.7%
Donald Trump (R)45.3%