Democratic
Minnesota › Minnesota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota House District 23A
Ronnenberg is very likely to win: Ronnenberg wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Staloch (D)
2%
chance of winning
Ronnenberg (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+15.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ronnenberg is very likely to win: Ronnenberg wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Staloch (D)
3%
chance of winning
Ronnenberg (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+20.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Nick Ronnenberg
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.32 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 44,212
- People per km²
- 12
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 20%
- White, no degree
- 70%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
22,959 votes · R+35.6✓ Peggy Bennett (R)67.7%
Joe Staloch (D)32.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
23,075 two-party votes · R+27.8 · R+26.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.9%
Kamala Harris (D)36.1%
2022
18,309 votes · R+31.6✓ Peggy Bennett (R)65.7%
Mary Hinnenkamp (D)34.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
20,927 votes · R+37.4✓ Bjorn Olson (R)68.4%
Patricia Fahey Bacon (D)31.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,247 two-party votes · R+23.5 · R+28.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.7%
Joe Biden (D)38.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,906 two-party votes · R+25.5 · R+27.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.2%