Democratic
Minnesota › Minnesota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota House District 17A
Gillman is very likely to win: Gillman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Anderson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Gillman (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+28.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Gillman is very likely to win: Gillman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Anderson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Gillman (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+33.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+47 to R+22
- Partisan lean
- R+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Dawn Gillman
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.69 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.14 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.14 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+40: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 51,129
- People per km²
- 26
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 73%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
24,007 votes · R+42.2✓ Dawn Gillman (R)71.0%
Chad Tschimperle (D)28.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,170 two-party votes · R+39.8 · R+38.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.9%
Kamala Harris (D)30.1%
2022
19,119 votes · R+40.7✓ Dawn Gillman (R)70.2%
Jennifer Carpentier (D)29.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
20,640 votes · R+35.2✓ Tim Miller (R)64.3%
Ben Dolan (D)30.8%
Ed Engelmann (—)4.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,814 two-party votes · R+38.6 · R+43.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.3%
Joe Biden (D)30.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,983 two-party votes · R+42.6 · R+44.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)28.7%