Democratic
Minnesota › Minnesota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota House District 15B
Theis is very likely to win: Theis wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Klawitter (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Theis (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+38
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Theis is very likely to win: Theis wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Klawitter (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Theis (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+32.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+45 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+38
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Geri Theis
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.2 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.94 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+38: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 44,051
- People per km²
- 11
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
23,143 votes · R+45.4✓ Paul Torkelson (R)72.7%
Tom Kuster (D)27.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
23,123 two-party votes · R+38.2 · R+36.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.1%
Kamala Harris (D)30.9%
2022
18,529 votes · R+45.2✓ Paul Torkelson (R)72.6%
Tom Kuster (D)27.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
24,971 votes · R+49.8✓ Shane Mekeland (R)70.5%
Ron Thiessen (D)23.6%
Myron Arthur Wilson (—)5.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,536 two-party votes · R+36.8 · R+41.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.4%
Joe Biden (D)31.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,436 two-party votes · R+42.2 · R+44.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)28.9%
Also on the ballot in Minnesota
Neighboring districts
HD-15ANathan SchmigBradley L Hennen>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-16ADavid J TorgelsonScott Van Binsbergen>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-18ALeah HansonErica SchwartzD flipD flip66%Dem.69%Dem. HD-21ALS Rusty NelsonKrist Wollum>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-21BJon WilsonMarj J Fogelman>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-22ASonja L. DennBjorn Olson>99%Rep.99%Rep.