Democratic
Massachusetts › Massachusetts House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts House of Representatives: 2nd Plymouth District
Gaskey is clearly favored to win: Gaskey wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Hewins (D)
15%
chance of winning
Gaskey (R)
85%
- Average margin
- R+8.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (50% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Hewins (D)
50%
chance of winning
Gaskey (R)
50%
- Average margin
- D+0.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.93 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 45,002
- People per km²
- 141
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 10%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,093 votes · R+78.0✓ John Robert Gaskey (R)89.0%
Sarah G Hewins (D)11.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,441 two-party votes · R+6.7 · R+5.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.4%
Kamala Harris (D)46.6%
2022
13,019 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Susan Williams Gifford (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
17,954 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Susan Williams Gifford (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,501 two-party votes · D+2.7 · R+1.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,058 two-party votes · R+5.2 · R+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.4%
Also on the ballot in Massachusetts
Neighboring districts
1st PlymouthMichelle BadgerDavid Golden Jr.99%Dem.92%Dem. 3rd BarnstableJack P. RichardsonDavid VieiraD flipD flip94%Dem.98%Dem. 5th Barnstable—Steven Xiarhos>99%Rep.>99%Rep. 10th BristolMark Sylvia—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 12th Bristol—Norman Orrall>99%Rep.>99%Rep. 12th PlymouthKathleen LaNatraEric J. Meschino95%Dem.79%Dem.