Democratic
Massachusetts › Massachusetts House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts House of Representatives: 6th Plymouth District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (77%).
Rushing is favored to win: Rushing wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Rushing (D)
77%
chance of winning
Sweezey (R)
23%
- Average margin
- D+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (87%).
Rushing is clearly favored to win: Rushing wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Rushing (D)
87%
chance of winning
Sweezey (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+11.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Kenneth Sweezey
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.13 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.77 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -10.77 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 48,487
- People per km²
- 235
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 54%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
28,142 votes · R+5.9✓ Kenneth Peter Sweezey (R)53.0%
Rebecca W Coletta (D)47.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
28,422 two-party votes · D+5.3 · D+6.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.7%
Donald Trump (R)47.3%
2022
21,666 votes · D+12.3✓ Josh S Cutler (D)56.1%
Kenneth Sweezey (R)43.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
27,008 votes · D+18.4✓ Joshua Cutler (D)59.2%
Tatyana Medvedevsemyrog (R)40.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
29,129 two-party votes · D+13.5 · D+9.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.8%
Donald Trump (R)43.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
24,257 two-party votes · D+2.5 · D+0.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%