DemocraticIncumbent
William F. Galvin
Incumbent secretary of the commonwealth (1995–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Massachusetts › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts Secretary of State
Galvin is very likely to win: Galvin wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Galvin (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Brensley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+36.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+29 to D+45
- Partisan lean
- D+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Galvin is very likely to win: Galvin wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Galvin (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Brensley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+39.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+26 to D+53
- Partisan lean
- D+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Anne Brensley
Former Wayland select board member (2023–2026) (write-in candidate, previously ran for lieutenant governor)
- Experience
- Local office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 13.21 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 13.21 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean D+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,044,056
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 6%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
3,377,821 two-party votes · D+25.9 · D+27.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)63.0%
Donald Trump (R)37.0%
2022
2,460,942 votes · D+39.5✓ William Francis Galvin (D)67.7%
Rayla Campbell (R)29.3%
Juan Sanchez (OTH)2.9%
2020 President Vote in this state
3,549,404 two-party votes · D+34.2 · D+29.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)67.1%
Donald Trump (R)32.9%
2016 President Vote in this state
3,086,089 two-party votes · D+29.3 · D+27.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)64.7%
Donald Trump (R)35.3%