DemocraticIncumbent
Mark Montigny
- Experience
- State legislature
Massachusetts › Massachusetts State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts State Senate: Second Bristol and Plymouth District
Montigny is very likely to win: Montigny wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Montigny (D)
99%
chance of winning
McConnell (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+19.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Montigny is clearly favored to win: Montigny wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Montigny (D)
91%
chance of winning
McConnell (R)
9%
- Average margin
- D+13.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Robert McConnell
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.61 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 167,487
- People per km²
- 277
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 11%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
55,918 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mark C Montigny (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
72,294 two-party votes · D+3.1 · D+4.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.5%
Donald Trump (R)48.5%
2022
36,211 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mark C Montigny (D)97.2%
Writein (—)2.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
55,159 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mark C Montigny (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
74,408 two-party votes · D+16.1 · D+11.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.0%
Donald Trump (R)42.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
66,074 two-party votes · D+19.8 · D+17.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.9%
Donald Trump (R)40.1%