DemocraticCandidate
Stephen J. Medeiros
Former Dartmouth Town Meeting member
- Experience
- No elected office
Massachusetts › Massachusetts House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts House of Representatives: 9th Bristol District
Medeiros is clearly favored to win: Medeiros wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Medeiros (D)
94%
chance of winning
Bousquet (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+12.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Medeiros is favored to win: Medeiros wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Medeiros (D)
78%
chance of winning
Bousquet (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+7.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticCandidate
Ed Pacheco
Evening security officer for Dartmouth Public Schools
- Experience
- No elected office
RepublicanCandidate
Henry Bousquet
Former New Bedford city councilor
- Experience
- Local office
RepublicanCandidate
Chester Tam
Vice chair of operations and digital media for Donald Trump 2024's presidential campaign
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 42,007
- People per km²
- 152
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 3%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
16,627 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Christopher M Markey (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
22,344 two-party votes · R+1.1 · D+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Kamala Harris (D)49.4%
2022
11,271 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Christopher M Markey (D)97.4%
Writein (—)2.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
26,885 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Christopher M Markey (D)56.9%
Michael J Moran (D)43.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
24,084 two-party votes · D+11.2 · D+6.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
21,306 two-party votes · D+12.8 · D+10.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.4%
Donald Trump (R)43.6%