Democratic
Iowa › Iowa House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa House District 28
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (69%).
Walton is favored to win: Walton wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Walton (D)
69%
chance of winning
Young (R)
31%
- Average margin
- D+3.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (75%).
Walton is favored to win: Walton wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Walton (D)
75%
chance of winning
Young (R)
25%
- Average margin
- D+6.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
David Young
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.15 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.85 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.85 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 32,015
- People per km²
- 131
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 55%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 83%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 3%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,503 votes · R+6.6✓ David Young (R)53.2%
Laura Snider (D)46.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,707 two-party votes · R+1.8 · R+0.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.9%
Kamala Harris (D)49.1%
2022
14,250 votes · R+6.4✓ David Young (R)53.1%
Sonya Heitshusen (D)46.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
12,892 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jon Thorup (R)98.6%
Writein (—)1.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
17,689 two-party votes · D+0.6 · R+3.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,573 two-party votes · R+9.1 · R+11.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.5%
Also on the ballot in Iowa
Neighboring districts
HD-22Rory TaylorSamantha Fett88%Rep.91%Rep. HD-23Karen VarleyRay Bubba Sorensen>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-27Kenan Judge—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-31Mary MadisonKevin W. DuBay>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-32Mike Jones—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-46Mandy Newton RosenowDan GehlbachFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.52%Rep. HD-47Chris NewCarter F. Nordman99%Rep.98%Rep.