Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Iowa › Iowa State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa State Senate District 23
Enos is favored to win: Enos wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Thompson (D)
27%
chance of winning
Enos (R)
73%
- Average margin
- R+4.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Enos is clearly favored to win: Enos wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Thompson (D)
17%
chance of winning
Enos (R)
83%
- Average margin
- R+9.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Tony Thompson
Republican
Wes Enos
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.21 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.28 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 79,879
- People per km²
- 65
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 3%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
41,266 two-party votes · R+16.7 · R+15.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.3%
Kamala Harris (D)41.7%
2022
29,461 votes · R+17.4✓ Jack Whitver (R)58.6%
Matt Pries (D)41.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
36,151 two-party votes · R+13.7 · R+18.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Joe Biden (D)43.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
25,434 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Herman C Quirmbach (D)74.8%
Eric Cooper (L)24.7%
Writein (—)0.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
26,364 two-party votes · R+21.2 · R+23.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
19,807 votes · D+18.3✓ Herman C Quirmbach (D)59.1%
Jeremy Davis (R)40.9%