Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Iowa › Iowa State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa State Senate District 47
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (59% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Wagle (D)
59%
chance of winning
Webster (R)
41%
- Average margin
- D+1.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (48% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Wagle (D)
48%
chance of winning
Webster (R)
52%
- Average margin
- R+0.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Nikhil Wagle
RepublicanIncumbent
Scott Webster
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.72 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.74 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.74 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 64,748
- People per km²
- 257
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 51%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 83%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 3%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
37,374 two-party votes · R+8.1 · R+6.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Kamala Harris (D)45.9%
2022
27,742 votes · R+12.3✓ Scott Webster (R)56.1%
Mary Kathleen Figaro (D)43.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
38,337 two-party votes · R+3.1 · R+7.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.5%
Joe Biden (D)48.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
30,560 votes · R+5.6✓ Roby Smith (R)52.8%
Marie Gleason (D)47.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
33,038 two-party votes · R+9.3 · R+11.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.3%
2014 Earlier district lines
26,568 votes · R+12.8✓ Roby Smith (R)56.4%
Maria Bribriesco (D)43.6%