Democratic
Iowa › Iowa House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa House District 19
Siegrist is favored to win: Siegrist wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Larson (D)
34%
chance of winning
Siegrist (R)
66%
- Average margin
- R+3.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (46% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Larson (D)
46%
chance of winning
Siegrist (R)
54%
- Average margin
- R+1.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Brent Siegrist
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.08 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.58 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.58 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 23,985
- People per km²
- 267
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 66%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,246 votes · R+17.3✓ Brent Siegrist (R)58.5%
Roger Petersen (D)41.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
13,800 two-party votes · R+8.8 · R+7.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.4%
Kamala Harris (D)45.6%
2022
8,788 votes · R+15.6✓ Brent Siegrist (R)57.7%
Elizabeth Christensen (D)42.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
24,267 votes · R+21.9✓ Carter Nordman (R)60.8%
Nick Miller (D)39.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,490 two-party votes · R+6.0 · R+10.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.0%
Joe Biden (D)47.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
12,854 two-party votes · R+10.9 · R+13.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.6%