Democratic
Iowa › Iowa House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa House District 41
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (78%).
Buck is favored to win: Buck wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Buck (D)
78%
chance of winning
Weldon (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+5.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (67%).
Buck is favored to win: Buck wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Buck (D)
67%
chance of winning
Weldon (R)
33%
- Average margin
- D+4.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Ryan Weldon
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.21 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.39 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.39 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 24,920
- People per km²
- 651
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 60%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 2%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
21,309 votes · R+0.6✓ Ryan Weldon (R)50.2%
Molly Buck (D)49.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
21,512 two-party votes · R+3.5 · R+2.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.8%
Kamala Harris (D)48.2%
2022
15,290 votes · D+0.8✓ Molly Buck (D)50.4%
Marvis Landon (R)49.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,243 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jo Oldson (D)97.7%
Writein (—)2.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
18,875 two-party votes · D+0.7 · R+3.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,335 two-party votes · R+6.6 · R+8.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.7%