Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members of each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Arkansas › Arkansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arkansas House District 56
Magie is very likely to win: Magie wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Magie (D)
97%
chance of winning
Brannan (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+15.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Magie is favored to win: Magie wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Magie (D)
64%
chance of winning
Brannan (R)
36%
- Average margin
- D+3.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Steve Magie
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Mark Brannan
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arkansas state offices
- +0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 13.76 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 13.76 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 33,773
- People per km²
- 290
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 16%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
11,072 votes · D+7.6✓ Steve Magie (D)53.8%
Kim Slaughter (R)46.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
10,663 two-party votes · R+4.0 · R+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.0%
Kamala Harris (D)48.0%
2022
8,367 votes · D+0.1✓ Steve Magie (D)48.4%
Trent Minner (R)48.3%
Howard Heffington (L)3.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
9,232 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Joe Jett (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
11,156 two-party votes · R+2.2 · R+6.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Joe Biden (D)48.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,740 two-party votes · R+6.1 · R+8.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.9%