Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members of each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Arkansas › Arkansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arkansas House District 9
Worthen is very likely to win: Worthen wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Worthen (D)
99%
chance of winning
Goff (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+21.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Worthen is clearly favored to win: Worthen wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Worthen (D)
82%
chance of winning
Goff (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+9.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Diana Gonzales Worthen
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Matt Goff
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arkansas state offices
- +0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.73 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 10.59 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 10.59 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 19,753
- People per km²
- 405
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 12%
- White, no degree
- 14%of adults
- White 15%
- Hispanic 52%
- Black 3%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 27%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,850 votes · D+9.8✓ Diana Gonzales Worthen (D)54.9%
Deanna Hodges (R)45.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,818 two-party votes · D+1.2 · D+2.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.6%
Donald Trump (R)49.4%
2022
2,862 votes · R+4.0✓ Deanna Hodges (R)50.0%
Diana Gonzales Worthen (D)46.2%
Steven Stilling (L)3.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
10,214 votes · R+4.5✓ Howard Beaty (R)52.3%
Leanne Burch (D)47.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,058 two-party votes · D+3.4 · R+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.7%
Donald Trump (R)48.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,327 two-party votes · R+5.8 · R+8.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.1%