Simple-majority veto override
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Arkansas › Arkansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arkansas House District 62
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (87%).
Miller is clearly favored to win: Miller wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Miller (D)
87%
chance of winning
McElroy (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+9.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (81%).
Miller is clearly favored to win: Miller wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Miller (D)
81%
chance of winning
McElroy (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+9.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Dexter R. Miller
RepublicanIncumbent
Mark McElroy
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arkansas state offices
- +0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.21 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -8.18 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 28,630
- People per km²
- 4
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 13%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 42%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 52%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
9,030 votes · R+7.3✓ Mark D McElroy (R)53.7%
Dexter R Miller (D)46.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
8,882 two-party votes · D+2.3 · D+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%
2022
7,741 votes · R+2.5✓ Mark D McElroy (R)51.3%
Dexter R Miller (D)48.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
11,446 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Michelle Gray (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
10,665 two-party votes · D+6.8 · D+2.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.4%
Donald Trump (R)46.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
11,485 two-party votes · D+16.5 · D+14.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.2%
Donald Trump (R)41.8%