Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto, so the majority party does not need a supermajority to pass bills over a veto.
Alabama › Alabama House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alabama House District 69
Lawrence is very likely to win: Lawrence wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Lawrence (D)
99%
chance of winning
Pendergrass (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+18.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lawrence is clearly favored to win: Lawrence wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Lawrence (D)
94%
chance of winning
Pendergrass (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+15.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Kelvin Lawrence
Incumbent representative
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Josh Pendergrass
Former communications director for Governor Kay Ivey (previously ran for state auditor)
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Alabama state offices
- −0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.01 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.75 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.75 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 50,101
- People per km²
- 10
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 17%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 45%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 49%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
23,462 two-party votes · D+7.7 · D+9.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.8%
Donald Trump (R)46.2%
2022
15,883 votes · D+10.5✓ Kelvin J Lawrence (D)55.2%
Karla Knight Maddox (R)44.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
32,883 two-party votes · D+18.8 · D+14.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.4%
Donald Trump (R)40.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
13,098 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kelvin Jamichael Lawrence (D)98.2%
Writein (—)1.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
25,045 two-party votes · D+20.9 · D+18.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)60.4%
Donald Trump (R)39.6%
2014 Earlier district lines
14,161 votes · D+36.8✓ Lawrence (D)66.4%
Grant (R)30.6%
Coley (I)3.0%