Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto, so the majority party does not need a supermajority to pass bills over a veto.
Alabama › Alabama House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alabama House District 10
Lands is very likely to win: Lands wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Lands (D)
95%
chance of winning
Thomas (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+14.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lands is clearly favored to win: Lands wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Lands (D)
81%
chance of winning
Thomas (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+8.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Marilyn Lands
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Aaron Thomas
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Alabama state offices
- −0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.57 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.71 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 59,180
- People per km²
- 213
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 52%
- White, no degree
- 30%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 20%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
22,338 two-party votes · D+2.1 · D+3.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.1%
Donald Trump (R)48.9%
2022
14,696 votes · R+6.9✓ David Cole (R)51.6%
Marilyn Lands (D)45.0%
Elijah Boyd (L)3.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
38,663 two-party votes · Even · R+4.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.0%
Donald Trump (R)50.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
20,948 votes · R+13.5✓ Mike Ball (R)53.7%
J B King (D)40.9%
Elijah J Boyd (L)5.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,537 two-party votes · R+13.8 · R+16.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.1%
2014 Earlier district lines
8,667 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ball (R)100.0%