Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto, so the majority party does not need a supermajority to pass bills over a veto.
Alabama › Alabama House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alabama House District 28
Butler is very likely to win: Butler wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Hunter (D)
1%
chance of winning
Butler (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+18.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+29 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Butler is clearly favored to win: Butler wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hunter (D)
6%
chance of winning
Butler (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+15.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+29 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Robert Hunter
RepublicanIncumbent
Mack Butler
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Alabama state offices
- −0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -35.84 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 45,093
- People per km²
- 146
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 13%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 29%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
17,760 two-party votes · R+26.7 · R+25.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.3%
Kamala Harris (D)36.7%
2022
6,856 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mack N Butler (R)95.8%
Write-In (—)4.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
26,014 two-party votes · R+5.7 · R+10.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.9%
Joe Biden (D)47.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
12,843 votes · R+10.6✓ Gil F Isbell (R)55.2%
Kyle Pierce (D)44.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,862 two-party votes · R+18.3 · R+20.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.8%
2014 Earlier district lines
10,531 votes · D+29.7✓ Ford (D)64.8%
Sherrod (R)35.2%