DemocraticIncumbent
Rhode Island › Rhode Island House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rhode Island House District 39
Cotter is clearly favored to win: Cotter wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Cotter (D)
90%
chance of winning
Roy (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+10.3
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+21
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Cotter is favored to win: Cotter wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Cotter (D)
62%
chance of winning
Roy (R)
38%
- Average margin
- D+2.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jasmin Roy
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Rhode Island state offices
- +3.9Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+13.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.43 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 14.24 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 14.24 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 15,337
- People per km²
- 57
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
8,644 votes · D+8.1✓ Megan L Cotter (D)54.0%
Justin K Price (R)46.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
9,467 two-party votes · R+4.5 · R+3.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.2%
Kamala Harris (D)47.8%
2022
6,700 votes · D+0.5✓ Megan L Cotter (D)45.2%
Justin K Price (R)44.8%
Sean Patrick Comella (I)10.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
8,046 votes · R+4.0✓ Justin K Price (R)52.0%
Megan L Cotter (D)48.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
8,431 two-party votes · R+1.0 · R+5.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Joe Biden (D)49.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,902 two-party votes · R+10.8 · R+13.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.6%