Democratic
Rhode Island › Rhode Island House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rhode Island House District 22
Pereira is very likely to win: Pereira wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Pereira (D)
98%
chance of winning
Quigley (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+16.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Pereira is very likely to win: Pereira wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Pereira (D)
95%
chance of winning
Quigley (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+16.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Barbara Quigley
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Rhode Island state offices
- +3.9Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+13.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.67 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 9.27 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 14,577
- People per km²
- 457
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
7,255 votes · D+14.0✓ Joseph J Solomon Jr (D)57.0%
David Stone (R)43.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
11,089 two-party votes · D+8.0 · D+9.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%
2022
5,397 votes · D+12.4✓ Joseph J Solomon Jr (D)56.2%
David Stone (R)43.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,845 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Joseph J Solomon Jr (D)52.2%
Gerald Carbone (—)46.9%
Writein (—)0.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
7,727 two-party votes · D+5.3 · D+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.6%
Donald Trump (R)47.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,447 two-party votes · R+2.9 · R+5.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.6%