Democratic
Iowa › Iowa House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa House District 5
Glienke is very likely to win: Glienke wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Steiner (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Glienke (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+40.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+50 to R+31
- Partisan lean
- R+56
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Glienke is very likely to win: Glienke wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Steiner (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Glienke (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+48.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+62 to R+36
- Partisan lean
- R+56
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Keith Glienke
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.55 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+56: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 34,089
- People per km²
- 9
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 67%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,318 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Zachary M Dieken (R)77.8%
Michael Schnoes (—)21.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
16,254 two-party votes · R+57.2 · R+55.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.6%
Kamala Harris (D)21.4%
2022
9,890 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Zachary M Dieken (R)99.0%
Write-In (—)1.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,092 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Thomas Jeneary (R)98.9%
Writein (—)1.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
18,121 two-party votes · R+52.1 · R+56.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.0%
Joe Biden (D)24.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,968 two-party votes · R+55.7 · R+57.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)77.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)22.2%