Democratic
Iowa › Iowa House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa House District 53
Fisher is clearly favored to win: Fisher wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Wobeter (D)
10%
chance of winning
Fisher (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+9.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fisher is clearly favored to win: Fisher wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Wobeter (D)
13%
chance of winning
Fisher (R)
87%
- Average margin
- R+11.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Dean Fisher
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.55 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.16 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 7.16 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 32,392
- People per km²
- 11
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 66%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
15,658 votes · R+13.7✓ Dean Fisher (R)56.8%
Tommy Hexter (D)43.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
16,000 two-party votes · R+19.6 · R+18.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Kamala Harris (D)40.2%
2022
12,259 votes · R+13.3✓ Dean Fisher (R)56.6%
Sarah Smith (D)43.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,873 votes · D+31.6✓ Sharon Steckman (D)65.7%
Simon Thomas Abela (R)34.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
16,811 two-party votes · R+14.4 · R+18.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.2%
Joe Biden (D)42.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
15,338 two-party votes · R+10.8 · R+13.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.6%
Also on the ballot in Iowa
Neighboring districts
HD-37—Jason Sandholdt>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-38Brad MaggMatthew Oleson83%Rep.94%Rep. HD-51Teresa PerinBrett Barker95%Rep.91%Rep. HD-52Mike TupperDavid BlomD flipFlip risk65%Dem.60%Dem. HD-54Leila Ann StatonJoshua Meggers>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-76Calvin HornMatt Reisetter80%Rep.85%Rep. HD-84Polly DenisonThomas Gerhold99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-88—Helena Hayes>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-91Mark DivittJudd Lawler73%Rep.71%Rep.