Democratic
Iowa › Iowa House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa House District 87
Shipley is clearly favored to win: Shipley wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
O'Donnell (D)
7%
chance of winning
Shipley (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+10.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Shipley is clearly favored to win: Shipley wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
O'Donnell (D)
8%
chance of winning
Shipley (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+13.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jeff Shipley
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.74 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.55 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.55 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 24,450
- People per km²
- 12
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 66%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,287 votes · R+18.5✓ Jeff Shipley (R)57.5%
Thomas Odonnell (D)39.6%
Curtis Oliver (—)2.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
14,764 two-party votes · R+21.4 · R+19.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.7%
Kamala Harris (D)39.3%
2022
11,612 votes · R+11.1✓ Jeff Shipley (R)55.5%
Mike Heaton (D)44.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
10,323 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Dennis M Cohoon (D)96.8%
Writein (—)3.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
16,144 two-party votes · R+17.7 · R+22.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.8%
Joe Biden (D)41.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,432 two-party votes · R+15.4 · R+17.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.3%