Democratic
Iowa › Iowa House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa House District 33
Muhammad is very likely to win: Muhammad wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Muhammad (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hammel (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+39.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Muhammad is very likely to win: Muhammad wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Muhammad (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hammel (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+33.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+22 to D+47
- Partisan lean
- D+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Lynn Hammel
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.19 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 28,952
- People per km²
- 1,446
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 17%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 51%
- Hispanic 22%
- Black 13%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
9,395 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ruth Ann Gaines (D)75.1%
Toya S Johnson (L)23.2%
Write-In (—)1.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
10,797 two-party votes · D+25.1 · D+26.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)62.6%
Donald Trump (R)37.4%
2022
5,715 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ruth Ann Gaines (D)94.9%
Write-In (—)5.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
12,952 votes · D+27.7✓ Brian Meyer (D)63.7%
Gregory T Malone (R)36.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
11,859 two-party votes · D+34.0 · D+29.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)67.0%
Donald Trump (R)33.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,480 two-party votes · D+35.7 · D+33.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)67.9%
Donald Trump (R)32.1%