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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

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Iowa › Iowa House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Iowa House District 47

Nordman is very likely to win: Nordman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

New (D)
1%
chance of winning
Nordman (R)
99%
Average margin
R+19.2
80% of outcomes
R+29 to R+10
Partisan lean
R+28
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Nordman is very likely to win: Nordman wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

New (D)
2%
chance of winning
Nordman (R)
98%
Average margin
R+20.5
80% of outcomes
R+33 to R+8
Partisan lean
R+28
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Statewide map: Iowa House of Representatives

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

R+19.2R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
R+20.5R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3New 1%Nordman 99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3New 2%Nordman 98%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Iowa state offices
+1.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+10.9Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office
58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
Midwest adjustment
+0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 58% of the environment andthe Midwest adjustmentR+18.1Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+20.5Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Iowa and look-alikeplacesR+18.3Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+19.2Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+20.4

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-2.22
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation2.39
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation2.39

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean R+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+22.2R+24.4 vs. nation2020 presidentR+25.0R+29.5 vs. nation2024 presidentR+29.1R+27.6 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
33,474
People per km²
9
Adults with a B.A.+
23%
White, no degree
67%of adults
  • White 85%
  • Hispanic 11%
  • Asian 1%
  • Other / multiracial 3%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

15,551 votes · R+28.2
✓ Carter Nordman (R)64.0%
Joe Shelly (D)35.8%

2024 President Vote in this district

16,545 two-party votes · R+29.1 · R+27.6 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)64.6%
Kamala Harris (D)35.4%

2022

11,952 votes · R+30.4
✓ Carter Nordman (R)65.1%
Gary Clayton Overla (D)34.7%

2020 Earlier district lines

16,035 votes · R+18.7
✓ Phil Thompson (R)59.3%
Shelly L Stotts (D)40.6%

2020 President Vote in this district

17,272 two-party votes · R+25.0 · R+29.5 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)62.5%
Joe Biden (D)37.5%

2016 President Vote in this district

14,407 two-party votes · R+22.2 · R+24.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.9%

Also on the ballot in Iowa

U.S. SenateJosh TurekAshley HinsonFlip riskFlip risk53%Rep.50%Rep. GovernorRob SandZach LahnD flipD flip83%Dem.79%Dem.

Neighboring districts

HD-7Rachel BurnsWendy Larson>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-11Bill OwenCraig Williams>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-18Tripp NarupThomas Jay Moore>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-23Karen VarleyRay Bubba Sorensen>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-28Tom WaltonDavid YoungD flipD flip69%Dem.75%Dem. HD-46Mandy Newton RosenowDan GehlbachFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.52%Rep. HD-48Benjamin OlsenChad Behn88%Rep.83%Rep.