Democratic
Iowa › Iowa House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa House District 8
Meyer is very likely to win: Meyer wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Williams (D)
1%
chance of winning
Meyer (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+19.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Meyer is very likely to win: Meyer wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Williams (D)
4%
chance of winning
Meyer (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+17.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Ann Meyer
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.98 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -32.07 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 32,029
- People per km²
- 33
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 70%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
10,731 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ann Meyer (R)97.5%
Write-In (—)2.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
13,628 two-party votes · R+27.1 · R+25.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.6%
Kamala Harris (D)36.4%
2022
8,021 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ann Meyer (R)97.3%
Write-In (—)2.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
15,111 votes · R+49.1✓ Terry Baxter (R)74.4%
Glenn Kiss (D)25.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,754 two-party votes · R+20.0 · R+24.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.0%
Joe Biden (D)40.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,788 two-party votes · R+18.4 · R+20.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.8%