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Arkansas › Arkansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arkansas House District 25
Puryear is very likely to win: Puryear wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
King (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Puryear (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+25.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Puryear is very likely to win: Puryear wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
King (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Puryear (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+34.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+47 to R+22
- Partisan lean
- R+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Courtney King
RepublicanIncumbent
Chad Puryear
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arkansas state offices
- +0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.16 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.48 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.48 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+41: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 38,811
- People per km²
- 23
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 14%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,212 votes · R+41.3✓ Chad Puryear (R)70.7%
Caitlin Tannehill Oxford (D)29.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
14,230 two-party votes · R+41.2 · R+39.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.6%
Kamala Harris (D)29.4%
2022
11,243 votes · R+37.7✓ Chad Puryear (R)68.8%
Caitlin Oxford (D)31.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
9,862 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Les Warren (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
13,791 two-party votes · R+41.3 · R+45.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.6%
Joe Biden (D)29.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
11,150 two-party votes · R+43.1 · R+45.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)28.5%
Also on the ballot in Arkansas
Neighboring districts
HD-7—Brit McKenzie>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-9Diana Gonzales WorthenMatt Goff99%Dem.82%Dem. HD-11Rey HernandezRebecca Burkes76%Rep.87%Rep. HD-19Jamie AtkinsonSteve UngerD flipFlip risk68%Dem.51%Dem. HD-20Max Deitchler—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-21Nicole Clowney—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-23—Kendra Moore>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-24Ryan IntchauspeCharlene Fite>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-26—James Eaton>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-46—Tonya Fletcher>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-47—Lee Johnson>99%Rep.>99%Rep.