400-member House
The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.
New Hampshire › New Hampshire House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire House of Representatives: State House District Strafford 17
LaMontagne is very likely to win: LaMontagne wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
LaMontagne (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Albion (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
LaMontagne is very likely to win: LaMontagne wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
LaMontagne (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Albion (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+30.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+18 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Jessica LaMontagne
Republican
Matthew D. Albion
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.29 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.81 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.81 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 4,841
- People per km²
- 343
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
2,723 votes · D+27.8✓ Jessica F Lamontagne (D)63.9%
Matthew D Albion (R)36.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
3,625 two-party votes · D+31.1 · D+32.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)65.6%
Donald Trump (R)34.4%
2022
1,547 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jessica F Lamontagne (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,455 votes · D+15.3✓ Susan Treleaven (D)20.6%
✓ Peter Bixby (D)18.9%
✓ Kenneth S Vincent (D)18.6%
Mike Castaldo (R)15.1%
Edwina Hastings (R)14.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
2,491 two-party votes · D+24.8 · D+20.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.4%
Donald Trump (R)37.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
2,144 two-party votes · D+19.1 · D+16.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.6%
Donald Trump (R)40.4%
Also on the ballot in New Hampshire
Neighboring districts
State House District Strafford 04Kimberly S. McGlincheyKurt Wuelper3 seats63%Dem.63%Dem. State House District Strafford 11Janet G. WallMonique Meadows3 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. State House District Strafford 13Peter W. BixbyDaniel A. Furman>99%Dem.99%Dem. State House District Strafford 14Peter B. Schmidt—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. State House District Strafford 15Samuel Chouinard—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. State House District Strafford 16Gary Gilmore—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.