400-member House
The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.
New Hampshire › New Hampshire House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire House of Representatives: State House District Hillsborough 35
2 seatsMcGhee is very likely to win: McGhee wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
McGhee (D)
98%
chance of winning
Barbour (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+15.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McGhee is clearly favored to win: McGhee wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
McGhee (D)
92%
chance of winning
Barbour (R)
8%
- Average margin
- D+14.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
1.9 D · 0.1 R expected of 2 seats
1.8 D · 0.2 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.33 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,603
- People per km²
- 103
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 57%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 85%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
11,077 votes · R+0.2✓ Liz Barbour (R)25.9%
✓ Kat McGhee (D)25.8%
Sue Homola (R)24.2%
Will Walker (D)24.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,755 two-party votes · D+12.3 · D+13.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.1%
Donald Trump (R)43.9%
2022
9,035 votes · D+3.3✓ Kat McGhee (D)26.1%
✓ Ben Ming (D)25.9%
Liz Barbour (R)24.4%
Susan E Homola (R)23.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,200 votes · D+17.2✓ Laura Telerski (D)20.4%
✓ Latha Mangipudi (D)20.4%
✓ Skip Cleaver (D)18.8%
Peter L Silva (R)14.4%
Anthony Dipaolo (R)13.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,745 two-party votes · D+14.1 · D+9.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.0%
Donald Trump (R)43.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,839 two-party votes · D+4.5 · D+2.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.3%
Donald Trump (R)47.7%
Also on the ballot in New Hampshire
Neighboring districts
State House District Hillsborough 05Heather RaymondPaul Schibbelhute3 seats99%Dem.96%Dem. State House District Hillsborough 09Santosh D. SalviJoseph Cole3 seats99%Dem.95%Dem. State House District Hillsborough 12Rosemarie L. RungMaureen MooneyD flipD flip8 seats86%Dem.71%Dem. State House District Hillsborough 34Stephanie GrundRuss Hodgkins3 seats99%Dem.97%Dem. State House District Hillsborough 36Michael PelleritoDiane PauerFlip risk2 seats66%Rep.53%Rep. State House District Hillsborough 43Paul DargieGary Daniels4 seats91%Dem.79%Dem.