400-member House
The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.
New Hampshire › New Hampshire House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire House of Representatives: State House District Rockingham 14
2 seatsWeyler is clearly favored to win: Weyler wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Paone (D)
5%
chance of winning
Weyler (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+11.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Weyler is clearly favored to win: Weyler wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Paone (D)
9%
chance of winning
Weyler (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+12.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.1 D · 1.9 R expected of 2 seats
0.2 D · 1.8 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.44 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.74 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.74 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,586
- People per km²
- 107
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 60%of adults
- White 95%
- Hispanic 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
7,978 votes · R+8.3✓ Kenneth L Weyler (R)35.1%
✓ Pam Brown (R)35.0%
Shaw Tilton (D)29.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,774 two-party votes · R+15.3 · R+13.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Kamala Harris (D)42.3%
2022
16,534 votes · R+15.3✓ Kenneth L Weyler (R)29.3%
✓ Deborah L Hobson (R)29.0%
Trisha Tidd (D)21.5%
Kim Casey (D)20.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
32,790 votes · R+19.4✓ Peter E Torosian (R)16.3%
✓ Debra L Desimone (R)15.4%
✓ Norman L Major (R)15.2%
✓ Robert D Harb (R)14.3%
Kay Galloway (D)11.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,712 two-party votes · R+12.0 · R+16.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.0%
Joe Biden (D)44.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,941 two-party votes · R+17.8 · R+20.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.1%
Also on the ballot in New Hampshire
Neighboring districts
State House District Rockingham 06Eric S. TurerAllen Cook85%Dem.69%Dem. State House District Rockingham 07JJ DeFeoLaurence A. Miner99%Rep.95%Rep. State House District Rockingham 08—Sayra Lynn DeVito>99%Rep.>99%Rep. State House District Rockingham 11Julie GilmanRobert Goeman3 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. State House District Rockingham 15Laurie A. WarnockJoe A. Guthrie2 seats98%Rep.95%Rep. State House District Rockingham 19Wendy LarsonSusan M. PorcelliFlip risk67%Rep.51%Dem. State House District Rockingham 20Rick A. FaulconerCharles R. Melvin, Sr.3 seats97%Rep.93%Rep.