400-member House
The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.
New Hampshire › New Hampshire House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire House of Representatives: State House District Merrimack 06
Schamberg is very likely to win: Schamberg wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Schamberg (D)
99%
chance of winning
Little (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+20.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Schamberg is clearly favored to win: Schamberg wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Schamberg (D)
94%
chance of winning
Little (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+15.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Tom Schamberg
Republican
Paul M. Little
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.98 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.38 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.38 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 4,266
- People per km²
- 23
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
2,340 votes · D+16.8✓ Tom Schamberg (D)58.4%
Victor Prieto (R)41.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
2,396 two-party votes · D+14.2 · D+15.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.1%
Donald Trump (R)42.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
2,276 two-party votes · D+17.4 · D+12.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.7%
Donald Trump (R)41.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
2,008 two-party votes · D+10.2 · D+7.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.1%
Donald Trump (R)44.9%
Also on the ballot in New Hampshire
Neighboring districts
State House District Grafton 11Roger B. Larochelle, Jr.Jake Abuhav96%Rep.88%Rep. State House District Merrimack 05Lorna CarlisleLouise Andrus2 seats94%Rep.88%Rep. State House District Merrimack 07Karen Elizabeth EbelDorothy L. Hitchmoth2 seats>99%Dem.99%Dem. State House District Merrimack 08Stephanie PayeurNatalie J. Wells3 seats95%Dem.85%Dem. State House District Sullivan 05Judith M. ThackaberryGeorge C. GrantD flipD flip65%Dem.74%Dem.