Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Montana › Montana State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana State Senate District 32
Kortum is very likely to win: Kortum wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Kortum (D)
99%
chance of winning
Ganser (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+18.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kortum is clearly favored to win: Kortum wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Kortum (D)
93%
chance of winning
Ganser (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+15.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Kelly Kortum
State representative from the 65th district (2021–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Neal Ganser
Businessowner and nominee for the 33rd state senate district in 2024 and the 61st state representative district in 2016
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.29 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 24,563
- People per km²
- 455
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 61%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
12,267 two-party votes · D+8.8 · D+10.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.4%
Donald Trump (R)45.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
10,654 votes · D+4.6✓ Pat Flowers (D)52.3%
Randy Chamberlin (R)47.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
11,106 two-party votes · D+18.8 · D+14.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.4%
Donald Trump (R)40.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
11,867 votes · D+3.7✓ Pat Flowers (D)50.4%
Jedediah Hinkle (R)46.8%
Francis Wendt (L)2.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,568 two-party votes · D+10.4 · D+8.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.2%
Donald Trump (R)44.8%
2014 Earlier district lines
6,870 votes · R+11.8✓ Jedediah Hinkle (R)55.9%
Franke Wilmer (D)44.1%